Fares and associated fees likely will continue to creep up, but Springfield-Branson National Airport should be able to retain most of its current flights and destinations through 2009.

That was the prognosis from Michael Boyd, an airline industry consultant in Springfield on Wednesday to talk about air service in southwest Missouri.

"You're going to see a shift, but you're not going to see major changes," he said. "Going forward, look for higher costs and higher fares."

Rumors that hundreds of airports -- Springfield among them -- are set to lose all of their air service are unfounded, Boyd told a gathering of local business leaders at the Springfield Chamber of Commerce.

"The news is not all that bad ... I think 2009 is going to be a very good year for (airlines)," said Boyd, an airline industry veteran who frequently provides aviation commentary to national news organizations.

"Very good," of course, is relative. The number of passengers passing through the Springfield airport is down about 10 percent year-to-date. Declines have been even steeper at major tourism destinations.

Boyd said he thinks the airline industry will stabilize in the next year, but he does not expect many companies to grow.

Boyd said no major airlines are likely to go bust in 2009, but most will continue to cut capacity and services as they seek more efficiency and adapt to higher oil prices.

"The entire system of travel, distribution and logistics is in line for major changes ... It was built on cheap oil," he said.

Boyd said most airlines have been built to make money on oil that's $60 or less a barrel. When prices shot up to $115 to $140 a barrel last summer, "airlines were losing money with almost every passenger."

Most now are focusing on "higher-yield" business passengers, rather than courting tourists with "cheap seats to Orlando," he said.

What that means for Springfield and other small air markets is less potential for new flights, a potential for reduced service -- or new fees for food and baggage check-in that used to be free -- and the certainty of upward-creeping ticket prices.

"Off-schedule flights" (read: delays) will probably be up about 10 percent in 2009, as well, although that's more a function of problems facing air traffic control than airlines, Boyd said.

Although connections to Cincinnati and St. Louis may be reduced due to changes by Delta and American, respectively, "you're not really losing anything that involves this community."

Branson airport

Asked whether the under-construction Branson Airport could pose a threat to the airport in Springfield, Boyd's answer was an emphatic "no."

"If it's something that would bring people into Branson, it would be a good thing for the area," he said, noting the two airports would appeal to largely separate markets.

He trotted out the same answer -- "no" -- to a follow-up question of whether the Branson facility might be able to attract a low-cost carrier airline.

"Airlines don't want to talk. They don't want to expand," Boyd said. "Unless someone's going to pay them a lot of money, that's just not going to happen."

Springfield is no more likely to attract additional airlines in the near future, however, Boyd said, specifically ruling out rumors that Southwest Airlines might enter the market.

"They're not going to be flying in here," he said of the airline, which recently has expanded only into much larger markets.

Boyd said Allegiant Air -- which recently added direct flights from Springfield to Phoenix -- is a special case, calling its business model "bulletproof."

The airline, which offers direct, relatively low-cost flights to Las Vegas, Orlando, Tampa and Phoenix, is less a traditional air transport business than it is a tourism company, packaging air fare with low-cost vacations and "creating passengers where none existed before."

Convenience is key

While higher fares may be bad news for anyone hoping for a cheap flight during spring break or summer vacation, the effect on local businesses and the Springfield area economy should be minimal, he said.

"You don't have low fares to wherever (now) and you probably won't, either ... but you have good business service," he said. "It's access to the region that's important."

The ability of a businessman from Tokyo or job applicant from Chicago to fly into Springfield has far more effect on the region's economic development than local residents' ability to get cheap tickets for vacation, he explained.

His recommendation for local businesses that want to ensure continued service: "Use this airport every time you possibly can."

Boyd said local vacationers still may opt to drive to a larger city to catch a cheaper flight, or curb long-range vacation travel altogether.

"They may start to stay home more," he said, which could have the positive effect of keeping money in the local economy. "It's not all bad, it's just restructuring."

Brian Denton, who works for St. John's-St. Francis Hospital in Mountain View, said he prefers to fly from Springfield for both business and personal trips, rather than drive to a larger airport.

"It's quick and convenient," Denton said after returning Wednesday from a business trip to Dallas. "Literally, it hasn't been 10 minutes yet and I have my bags ...

"It's small enough you can find your way around, and the people are actually nice. It's all about the personal service."

Businessmen Bernard Knoebel and Rich Kaysa, in Springfield for a meeting at Bass Pro Shops, also commented on the service at the Springfield airport.

"It's very comfortable," said Knoebel, whose company in Germany manufactures firearms that are distributed by Kaysa's company in San Antonio. "People are nice and friendly, that's my impression."

As the men waited for their return flight to Dallas Wednesday, Kaysa said the ability to fly direct to Springfield for the meeting was more important than a slightly cheaper fare to Kansas City or St. Louis.

"The biggest thing for us would be convenience," he said.

"And it's not going to be that much cheaper somewhere else."